Climate Catastrophe, 5-7°C by 2100

At the same time as the US have elected a science denier as their president a new study in the Journal Science indicate that our planet's temperature could rise by between 4.78°C to 7.36°C during a lifetime (by 2100). Much higher than the IPCC estimated 2.6°C and 4.8°C. A higher climate sensitivity indicates just that, that warming will occur faster than previously expected, giving less time for species to adapt and survive. 

Global mean temperature anomaly. Left panel: Reconstruction of last 784,000 yrs. Right panel: Global warming projection to 2100 based on newly calculated paleoclimate sensitivity. Credit: Friedrich, et al. (2016)

We already know that 2°C of warming is considered dangerous and that 4°C would be utterly devastating. A 4°C scenario could include consequences like: the inundation of coastal cities, loss of food production, malnutrition and hunger, unprecedented heat waves, extreme water scarcity in many regions, increased frequency of tropical storms, irreversible loss of biodiversity etc.

Furthermore, a dramatic rise in temperatures would trigger reinforcing feedback processes in the climate system (e.g. warming→ polar ice melts → more warming → more ice melts) that are pretty much irreversible. Leaving us with no choice but to adapt to the harsh realities of abrupt climate change

President-elect Trump has promised to halt all US climate change politics, including the Paris Accord, and bet all cards on fossil fuel extraction. If so, there will be no international climate agreement worth mentioning and North Americans will be lost in a dark age.

All while the planet keep on getting warmer, generating extreme events, creating more climate refugees and conflict over scarce resources. Until it becomes so unbearable that only a few places on Earth remain as safe havens. It is truly an apocalyptic vision of humanity's future.


Out of the ashes into the fire

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