Showing posts with label heatwaves. Show all posts

Heat dome over Sweden pushing people to the limit

After a busy year I have finally found some time to write again. I also feel the need to portray the very unusually dry and hot summer that we have had here in Sweden.




I'm sure most readers have already heard about how Sweden have struggled with lots of wildfires this summer. This is due to a heat dome forming over Scandinavia because of a broken and “stuck” jet stream (as explained in the video above) leading to high pressure weather over most parts of the country for two months (May-July) straight with very little or no rainfall. Only 13 mm (0.51 in) of rain from the beginning of May to late July. And temperature soaring to >30C, which in some regions is 20C above the norm. This have also been the case where I live, in the south east, where many are suffering from the prolonged heat and drought. 

Many elderly are weakened and suffer heat strokes since buildings are not equipped with cooling air conditioning. Hospitals have had to cancel operations due to the heat and systems overheating. The death toll this summer will be above the norm.

Farmers have had a bad harvest due to lack of precipitation and don't have enough hay to feed their livestock. Many have had to slaughter their cattle. The government has promised 1.2 billion kronor (117 million euros, $137 million) in aid to help farmers hit hard by the drought. But many farmers think it's too little too late to keep them from going bankrupt and it doesn't help against the lack of rain. 

Lots of wildfires have been raging in the middle part of the country, forcing people to flee and emergency measure to be put in place. Approximately 20,000 hectares" of forests have burned up. Some counties have banned outdoor fires and put restriction on water use. The government has had to ask other EU countries for help to fight the many wildfires both from above and on the ground. Volunteers have also played a  major part in the effort to evacuate and put out fires. 

Groundwater levels in smaller lakes in the south east are below average and falling. It will take a lot of rain or snow to recover to normal levels.

Air conditioners, pools and fluid replacements are out of stock in every supermarket. Electricity use is way above normal and nuclear plants might have to be closed down due to the water that's used to cool reactors now being to warm.

Trains have malfunctioned and there has been lots of train cancellations all through the summer. 

Many animals suffer as well and people have put out water bowls in their gardens to provide relief.

The only good thing about this summer is that climate change now will be a part of the election campaigns for this fall. The question is, however, if people are willing to pay for the changes that are needed. Redesigning our infrastructure will not be cheap but its a must for the future.

Climate disasters increase risk of armed conflict

Genocide in Rwanda 1994. Credit: U.S. Army Africa historical image archive

A new study from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research shows that about 25% of conflicts in ethnically divided countries coincide with natural disasters, not counting climate change impacts. The study focuses on the economic damage from natural disasters to link climatic factors to social impacts. 

About 9% of all (21) global armed-conflict outbreaks significantly coincide with a climatological disaster, drought or heat wave, in the same country. Looking at the period 1980-2010 researchers were surprised to find that ethnical division were a better predictor for armed conflict after natural disasters than other factors such as history, poverty or inequality. "Ethnic divides may serve as a predetermined conflict line when additional stressors like natural disasters kick in" says co-author Jonathan Donges.

Event coincidence analysis results based on the occurrence of disasters that coincide with an armed-conflict outbreak within the same month. Filled segments indicate coincidence rates that are significant at the 95% level.

A relatively stable climate in the Holocene could thus have promoted more peaceful times. Intuitively this makes sense, since a stable climate allows for surpluses to be gathered/harvested. When resources are scarce people are more likely to turn back to tribal behavior of in-and-out groupings. And ethnic division is one way of grouping. 

We know from studies of warfare in chimpanzees that lethal aggression can be evolutionarily beneficial, rewarding winners with food, mates and opportunity to pass along their genes. And among chimps, just like humans, males are responsible for a overwhelming majority of attacks.

Several of the world's most conflict-prone regions such as North and Central Africa and Central Asia are both vulnerable to climate change enhanced natural disasters and have strong ethnic divisions. The instability we have caused in Earth's climate system could thus lead to an increase in armed conflict in these regions. But no region will go unharmed, some are just more prone to armed conflict when natural disasters strike than others.

Armed Conflict Map 2014. Source: Uppsala University