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Pacific Ocean Regulates Global Climate
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| Sea surface temperature anomalies from Dec 2013 to Sept 2015. Click here to view animation. Source: NASA |
A new paper presented in Nature Geoscience show a realistic evolution of global mean surface temperature since 1900 with the help of advanced computer simulations. The study distinguishes a clear anthropogenic (human caused) warming by removing natural variability, regulated mainly by the Pacific Ocean.
Plotted raw temperature data show a rise of temperatures in a nonlinear fashion, with steeper increases over the past 50 years. When removing natural variability, warming and cooling of the Pacific Ocean, the rise in global mean surface temperatures show a more linear increase with an acceleration in the 1960s. The Pacific Ocean thus plays a key role in regulating global climate, for example, by having a cooling effect between 1998-2014 (also known as the “hiatus”).
While raw data show a warming of 0.9 °C between 2010-2014 relative to 1900 Kosaka & Xie’s calculations yields a much higher anthropogenic warming of 1.2 °C after correcting for the natural variability. Because the Pacific had a cooling effect during this period anthropogenic warming have been underestimated. When the Pacific turns from carbon sink to source warming is likely to accelerate. This is the scary thing about natural systems, they behave in dynamic, nonlinear fashion, amplifying or dampening forcings.
The Failure of Urban Design
James Howard Kunstler holding a presentation about urban design in Sweden at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm.
When the music stops
Heading for the next financial crisis?
When it comes to the topic of economics there are few trustworthy academics who know what they are talking about. However, an excellent one is prof. Steve Keen at Kingston University. He uses dynamic models and includes banks and credit/debt as key parameters to understanding financial crises. Something neoclassical economists totally ignore, which is ridiculous of course.
In one of Steve's latest blog posts, at debtdeflation.com, we find this interesting slide showing countries with rapid credit growth and accumulation of private sector debt since 2008. According to Keen these are the future debt-zombies, with a debt ratio of over 150% of GDP. Sweden (brown line) is among the worst of all countries and headed for a crisis. With private debt soaring to 237% of GDP and growing 15% of GDP per year it becomes clear that this is unsustainable and will have to end. Changes in the massive property bubble in Sweden will likely be a key indicator to the coming downturn. The new mortgage repayment requirements may function to slow down credit growth, and if so, most likely popping the bubble. We can't predict when the crash will happen but that it will happen is a sure thing.
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| Source: Steve Keen, presentation on growing private sector debt and financial crises |
As for the US we can see in the chart below how credit growth picked back up again in 2010 after some deleveraging (2008-2009) but has once again started a downturn. A pattern similar to Japan's zombie-economy with rising and falling credit leading to recessions and ever more financial trickery from central banks.
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| Source: Steve Keen, presentation on inequality, debt and credit stagnation |
This will affect the unemployment levels as, Keen shows in the chart below, there is a strong correlation between changes in credit and unemployment rates. More than 45 million Americans, about 20% of the population, are already on food stamps. According to shadowstats, real unemployment in America is at 23% as of May 2016, not 4.7% as the government claims. Not counting people who have stopped actively looking for a job, cherry picking data, is very dubious and has lead many mainstream media pundits to scratch their head as to "why so many americans are on food stamps?".
Because there is so much misinformation and propaganda regarding the true state of affairs most people will be surprised when the next crisis hits. They will be angry as to why politicians have not informed them of the dangers and will be even less happy when the government asks for more tax money to once again bail out the banks. But certain homogenous societies may still be stable despite such hardships, as is the case with Japan. While others may experience uprisings and mayhem.
Taking action to protect yourself and your community, getting out of debt, is all one can do at this point. Governments around the world are so blinded by their addiction to credit growth that they will do anything to keep the bubble going. Even if it only increases the income gap between the rich and the poor. Getting out of debt and investing in alternative energy sources and food production is the safer bet. And something we should all do to protect our families and future generations.
Extreme weather - the "New Normal"
Mother Nature Strikes Back
Yes it's true that an El Niño period usually brings about certain weather extremes, however, the 2015/2016 El Niño has broken all records in terms of strength i.e. heat being released into the atmosphere from the oceans. This is to be expected as the climate is getting warmer from all the carbon pollution that has altered the chemistry of the planet. Climate change acts as a multiplier effect, increasing the frequency or amplitude of extreme weather events.
I'm sure most people have read the terrible news about the massive wildfires in Alberta or the flash floods in Germany, France and West Virginia. Few, however, may have heard about the deadly heat waves in India, floods in Pakistan or failing harvests in South Africa.
Sometimes it's hard to get a grip on what climate change will do to our environments and livelihoods. It can feel distant in time or abstract. But changes are already occurring and we have to start adapting now or more people will have to flee and become climate refugees.
These two videos give a good overview of some of the extreme weather events that have struck nations around the world lately and why it's happening. It should give us all pause, make us understand the urgency of tackling and responding to a rapidly changing climate.
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