I'm sure most readers have already heard about how Sweden have struggled with lots of wildfires this summer. This is due to a heat dome forming over Scandinavia because of a broken and “stuck” jet stream (as explained in the video above) leading to high pressure weather over most parts of the country for two months (May-July) straight with very little or no rainfall. Only 13 mm (0.51 in) of rain from the beginning of May to late July. And temperature soaring to >30C, which in some regions is 20C above the norm. This have also been the case where I live, in the south east, where many are suffering from the prolonged heat and drought. 

Many elderly are weakened and suffer heat strokes since buildings are not equipped with cooling air conditioning. Hospitals have had to cancel operations due to the heat and systems overheating. The death toll this summer will be above the norm.

Farmers have had a bad harvest due to lack of precipitation and don't have enough hay to feed their livestock. Many have had to slaughter their cattle. The government has promised 1.2 billion kronor (117 million euros, $137 million) in aid to help farmers hit hard by the drought. But many farmers think it's too little too late to keep them from going bankrupt and it doesn't help against the lack of rain. 

Lots of wildfires have been raging in the middle part of the country, forcing people to flee and emergency measure to be put in place. Approximately 20,000 hectares" of forests have burned up. Some counties have banned outdoor fires and put restriction on water use. The government has had to ask other EU countries for help to fight the many wildfires both from above and on the ground. Volunteers have also played a  major part in the effort to evacuate and put out fires. 

Groundwater levels in smaller lakes in the south east are below average and falling. It will take a lot of rain or snow to recover to normal levels.

Many animals suffer as well and people have put out water bowls in their gardens to provide relief.

When it rains, it pours and when it snows, it snows a lot. On average unusually warm weather is interrupted by sudden cold spells, taking people by surprise. Both Stockholm and Göteborg have had major traffic problems with so much snow falling in such a short time period. City regions struggle to keep subways, trains and highways up and running while smaller municipalities seem to be doing fine. 

Then again, people who live out in the countryside are better prepared to deal with such events because they are used to having to manage by themselves. Better planning, checking forecasts, not rushing, having more supplies at home and friendly neighbours who will help in a pinch are some of the characteristics that come to mind. I have had a farmer help pull my car from a snowdrift with his tractor.  

On the 30th of November, the sun set at 11:38 in the most northern part, Treriksröset, of Sweden. The next time the sun will go above the horizon is on the 11th of January 2017. Days will become shorter in the entire country until the winter solstice, on 21st of December, and then it turns around. Luckily we have some snow now where I live, which makes the place brighter. 

While the cold has hit Scandinavia, parts of northern Europe, and Russia the Arctic region is suffering from very warm temperature, up to +20 C, anomalies. 

The loss of Arctic sea ice is of major concern. The rapid decline in extent and volume has occurred much faster than most climate models have projected. There are several factors that impacts sea ice, not only wind, air and ocean temperature, but also cloudiness and ice thickness. Sea ice loss is showing signs of a downwards spiral that most likely cannot be stopped. Adding extra heating to the Arctic region, the globe as a whole, and changing wind (jet stream) patterns.

Now that the english have voted to exit the european union one must ask if it's not about time to have a referendum here in Sweden. The results could mirror those of the brits, a slight majority preferring to leave. A divide mostly between the upper and lower class and the old and the young. Swedes already said no to join the Euro and NATO so the sentiment of wanting to keep self-determination has always been strong. 

Opinion polls show loosing confidence in established parties and a turn towards more radical left and right wing politics as people become increasingly aware of the major challenges society is facing. The conservative Sweden Democrats is thought to have gained some 20% of voters while the Social Democrats and the Liberals have lost a significant number of voters. 

Economic, environmental and energy problems keep piling up without any clear vision or united efforts to tackle them on a national scale. On top of that immigration has become a major issue that divides the country. At the same time property prices and rents are sky high in city regions leading to segregation that only intensifies conflicts between the have and have nots.

This meanwhile farmers are struggling due to unreasonable EU rules and practices. Sweden imports almost 50% of the food that is consumed despite all the fertile land and freshwater the country has. However, the trend is shifting towards more locally grown food as people become aware of the benefits and the enjoyment in knowing where their food comes from. But it's a slow process.

The danger of course, in these times of political turmoil, is for demagoguery to gain more traction as people struggle to make sense of shifting power structures and harsher socioeconomic conditions. There are no easy or quick fixes, even if Sweden leaves the EU we still have many problems that our own government is to blame for, the massive private debt burden for example. The rising economic inequality and unfunded pensions that indebted students without any sight of gaining high paying jobs will ever be able to pay for. Exiting the EU or stopping immigration won't solve these problems, we need structural change of our entire economic system. The question is if we have the courage to change our way of living before it is changed for us, whether we like it or not.

Measuring stations in Böda on Öland, Gotska Sandön and in Ronneby show record low groundwater levels that normally would only occur during August-September. According to Geological Survey of Sweden, groundwater levels in this region have been dropping continuously for the last five years. However, cyclical variations of high and low groundwater levels of 11-12 years are not uncommon. 

Without large amounts of rainfall in April, before the growing season starts, groundwater levels will not be able to return to normal and communities may experience problems of water availability. Shallow wells are most affected by low groundwater levels as they risk drying out. In low lying coastal areas there is also a risk of saltwater intrusion. Out of 9 million 1.2 million people in Sweden rely on groundwater from private wells. 

Restrictions on irrigation on Gotland came into force already on 1st of April since the region want to avoid heavy restrictions during the summer when tourism is booming. Gotland municipality has also decided to build a desalination plant that should be operational this summer according to NyTeknik. Desalination is however a very energy intensive and expensive process but perhaps the brackish Baltic water is less costly to desalinate.

It is likely that southeast Sweden will increasingly face problems of groundwater scarcity while the rest of the country will experience higher groundwater levels as a consequence of climate change.

Spring has so far been unusually warm which means an earlier growing season and migration of birds. March was warmer than average in the entire country, with 3-4C above average  in parts of middle and northern Sweden.

Source: SMHI

Politicians, journalists and pundits have for many years used the number of 50% regarding Sweden’s self-sufficiency in agriculture. A new investigation from the agricultural magazine ATL, however, shows that this number without a doubt is incorrect. A protracted crisis with blockaded imports would result in a catastrophe.

Sweden has made itself vulnerable to shocks and disturbances in international trade by outsourcing production of basic commodities and relying on imports. The precarious global geopolitical situation have brought the question of self-sufficiency back on the political agenda. 

In 2002 the last reserves and warehouses with foodstuffs in case of a national emergency were dismantled. Ten years later we read in a report from LRF that about half of all the food Swedes consume comes from imports. People have therefore assumed that Sweden has a self-sufficiency level of 50%. 

But the relationship between imported and domestically produced food only shows a theoretical potential. Current stocks would only last for a maximum of 3 weeks if there is a true crisis. There are no warehouses with food and chemicals for water purification and our largest packaging plant was shut down last year, according to Therese Frisell at the National Food Agency. 

In other words, Sweden is not self-sufficient at all. According to Frisell our capacity is at zero. This is due to that Sweden is heavily reliant on imports for industrial agriculture, for example oil, fertilizers and protein for animal feed.

Researchers at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences together with the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency claim that farmers can produce food in a time of crisis but that this would require a large scale transition. Farmers would have to rely less on machines, switch from cereals to root crop and from pigs and chickens to uncultivated pasture meat. Farmers can not do it alone, they would need extra manpower. And if the transition fails, Sweden would likely not be able to support its growing population. People would starve.

It's always fun to compare results among countries, especially when it concerns cultural attitudes. So when I happened to find the american version of top 10 fears, that I just published a post about on my Swedish blog Resurstoppen, I simply had to make a comparison.

Now, I am biased since I think ecosystem destruction and climate change poses much bigger threats to humanity than terrorism or cyber warfare. This is the sane position most rational individuals would take, I think. If we don't have clean drinking water or a stable climate then why bother worrying about anything else really. However, most people worry about things that are more regional or national in scale than global. That's just human nature.

Anyway, let's go through some of the topics listed in the two diagrams and assess the threats, the risk they pose, i.e. how likely and with what potential impacts (serious, medium, low). 

Threat 1. Environmental destruction/Climate Change

Human engineering has left a mark on 83 per cent of the planet. At the time of the Roman Empire Earth held about 1000 billion tonnes of carbon in living biomass (plants and animals) but since then humans have consumed about half of that, leaving only 550 billion tonnes of carbon in biomass. This probably means that we have destroyed at least 50% of terrestrial ecosystems. A limit that many scientists believe we should not pass since it could trigger a state shift in the biosphere. As for climate change, given a climate sensitivity of about 3C for doubled CO2e, atmospheric concentration of CO2 must be reduced from its current 400 to 350 ppmv, to maintain the relative Holocene climate stability within which civilization has evolved. In other words, this threat is very likely and with serious consequences.