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The struggle to survive a collapsing society

Mohamed Ataya, a 31-year-old Syrian tends to his plants on the rooftop of his damaged building in the Syrian rebel-held town of Arbin, in the eastern Ghouta region on the outskirts of the capital Damascus last week. Ataya, who used to be a professional football player before the war, cultivates seeds for sale. Reddit March, 2017.

The crisis of civilisation


People seem confused, deluded by mainstream media into to wishful thinking, about the current state of affairs in the world. But there is that uneasy feeling that all the alarming reports about peak oil, climate change, desertification, species mass extinction, freshwater scarcity, dying coral reefs, melting of polar ice caps and toxification of our environment are piling up. In fact, we are currently living in a time of a collapsing civilisation, the end to wasteful resource use and reliance on fossil fuels. Everything is becoming increasingly expensive leading to falling standards of living and a majority of the world's population who can barely afford food, shelter or gas for transport anymore. When food becomes too expensive people riot and revolt against the ruling elite. Conflict arises and sometimes it breaks out into wars. Syria being the prime example. For Syrians who are still within the country's borders a total and rapid collapse has long since been underway and is continuing to this day. Look at the man watering his seeds in a city of concrete ruins. Its utterly sad and beautiful at the same time. That is reality. And we will be seeing more of it as entropy starts moving in from the periphery of the global economy towards the centre.




Since it's clear now, almost fifty years after The Limits to Growth (1972) was published, that humans will not take preemptive action to avoid a collapse of the system, the global economy will have to shrink. And the process has been underway for some time now, especially since 2008, it's just that some regions will feel it much harder and sooner than others. Nobody is safe from its crushing effects, that's why building resilience is important for every community on Earth.


People who are well aware of the seriousness of our current situation are suggesting radical ideas because they know there will be mayhem as hundreds of millions of people will be displaced due to a rapidly degrading biosphere and unstable climate.

“Why not create a climate passport, actually, give it to all those people who cannot live anymore in their original homes, which gives them access to all the countries who destroyed their home, like the United States” - H.J Schellnhuber (Climate Change: A Last Call for the Planet, 2018)



Well, sure... that probably wont happen but it shows the inequality of the issue and where, to the centre of the global economy, people with the possibility to do so will be fleeing as their own areas are devastated. The world's richest 10% account for half the carbon emissions while the poorest 3.5 billion account for just a tenth. 

Now, climate is not the only issue here, it's just one of the symptoms of a full world. Syria suffered lost state revenue from declining oil exports due to a peak in production, massive population growth, reduced food and fuel subsidies, at the same time as they had the worst drought in 900 years. It's a combination of converging crises that crushes nations that lack resilience. This is only one way that collapse manifests. But it will impact every nation, either direct or indirect, and cause instability and hardship for ordinary people while a small percentage of the rich continue to overexploit remaining resources.
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Climate disasters increase risk of armed conflict

Genocide in Rwanda 1994. Credit: U.S. Army Africa historical image archive

A new study from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research shows that about 25% of conflicts in ethnically divided countries coincide with natural disasters, not counting climate change impacts. The study focuses on the economic damage from natural disasters to link climatic factors to social impacts. 

About 9% of all (21) global armed-conflict outbreaks significantly coincide with a climatological disaster, drought or heat wave, in the same country. Looking at the period 1980-2010 researchers were surprised to find that ethnical division were a better predictor for armed conflict after natural disasters than other factors such as history, poverty or inequality. "Ethnic divides may serve as a predetermined conflict line when additional stressors like natural disasters kick in" says co-author Jonathan Donges.

Event coincidence analysis results based on the occurrence of disasters that coincide with an armed-conflict outbreak within the same month. Filled segments indicate coincidence rates that are significant at the 95% level.

A relatively stable climate in the Holocene could thus have promoted more peaceful times. Intuitively this makes sense, since a stable climate allows for surpluses to be gathered/harvested. When resources are scarce people are more likely to turn back to tribal behavior of in-and-out groupings. And ethnic division is one way of grouping. 

We know from studies of warfare in chimpanzees that lethal aggression can be evolutionarily beneficial, rewarding winners with food, mates and opportunity to pass along their genes. And among chimps, just like humans, males are responsible for a overwhelming majority of attacks.

Several of the world's most conflict-prone regions such as North and Central Africa and Central Asia are both vulnerable to climate change enhanced natural disasters and have strong ethnic divisions. The instability we have caused in Earth's climate system could thus lead to an increase in armed conflict in these regions. But no region will go unharmed, some are just more prone to armed conflict when natural disasters strike than others.

Armed Conflict Map 2014. Source: Uppsala University
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Climate-exodus from MENA

Map of the European Migrant Crisis 2015. Credit: Maximilian Dörrbecker (CC BY-SA 2.0)


Researchers from the Max Planck institute have calculated that summer temperatures in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) could become so hot within the coming 30 years that human habitability is compromised. Hot summer days south of the Mediterranean could see temperatures around 46 °C that, together with all the desert dust and air pollution, could become intolerable and force people to migrate.

More than 500 million people live in MENA, a region that is already experiencing drought problems and conflict over water resources. The number of extremely hot days has doubled since 1970 while population has exploded, leading to overexploitation of groundwater basins. 

In a recent story by Reveal we could read how global leaders are becoming increasingly worried about water shortages. The growing water crisis in the Middle East is thought to have contributed to destabilizing the region, sparking civil unrest and war in Syria and Yemen.

According to a 2009 cable from the U.S. Ambassador in Yemen, “Water shortages have led desperate people to take desperate measures with equally desperate consequences” 

Of course, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that people become desperate when the most vital of resources for survival becomes scarce. The once arid region is turning more and more into a desert, both due groundwater depletion and shifting climatic zones. 

Even if climate change is limited to a global mean temperature increase of 2 °C warming over land will be stronger and extreme temperatures can increase well beyond +2°C. As such, heat waves and water shortages will only worsen over time as carbon emissions rise and unsustainable usage of aquifers continues. 

Climate-exodus expected in the Middle East and North Africa
In the Middle East and North Africa, the average temperature in winter will rise by around 2.5 °C (left) by the middle of the century, and in summer by around 5°C (right) if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase according to the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8,5)
The migration flows from the MENA region into Europe and elsewhere will most likely increase in the future as people have no choice but to move from their drying land. 
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Water Stress in the Mediterranean Basin

Dust storm sweeping across Syria, the Mafraq region of Jordan, and part of Turkey's Mediterranean coast (7th of September, 2015). Credit: NASA Earth Observatory- Aqua Modis
Global pressures on finite water resources have grown rapidly over the past decades as a result of population growth, increasing per capita consumption and industrial agriculture. Overexploitation of groundwater in agricultural regions of particular concern are north-western India, the north China plain, the Great Plains of North America and the Central Valley in California (Rockström et al. 2014). Climate change is already impacting the number of people living in absolute water scarcity (Schewe et al. 2013). Water scarcity is a recurrent imbalance that arises from an overuse of water resources, caused by consumption being significantly higher than the natural renewable availability. Water scarcity can be aggravated by water pollution and drought.

River basins, with withdrawals exceeding more than 40–60% of available water resources, experience severe water scarcity. Many economically important river basins around the world are suffering from unsustainable withdrawals of water that impinge on ecological needs or have surpassed ecological limits such as the Amu and Syr Darya, the Indus, the Nile, the Colorado, the Orange, the Lerma Chapala, the Murray Darling and the Yellow River basin.

Global hydroregions - population pressures on water security


Source: Meybeck et al. 2013

The map above shows a relative pressure indicator (incorporating population density and runoff) for river basins in different hydroregions of the world. We can see that dry belts (medium density and very low runoff) around the equator and northern mid-latitude (high density and medium runoff) have the highest pressure on water security, while hydroregions with minimal pressure are due to high runoff and/or low population density (e.g. Amazon and Orinoco basin, Boreal hydroregions, Northern Australia basins) (Meybeck et al. 2013). Water security pressure range from the most to the least densely populated: Asia > Europe > North America > Africa > South America > Australia. Interesting to note is the difference between the “Old World” (Asia, MENA, Europe) and the “New World” (Americas and Australia).

Overall Water Risk around the Mediterranean

Shows level of overall water risk (physical quantity, quality and access).
Source: Aqueduct-Water Risk Atlas

In the map above we see which countries and city regions around the Mediterranean that suffer most acutely from overall water risk. London, Budapest, Bucharest, Valencia, Naples, Odessa, Donetsk, Sofia, Istanbul all show signs of high overall water risk due to population pressure. Countries in the dry belt of North Africa and the Middle East (MENA) all show signs of high overall water risk, either from depletion of water resources, pollution or lack of access to clean drinking water.

Baseline Water Stress around the Mediterranean

Shows baseline water stress (the ratio of total annual withdrawals to total available renewable supply). Source: Aqueduct-Water Risk Atlas

If we look at baseline water stress defined as the ratio of total annual water withdrawals to total available renewable supply (accounting for upstream consumptive use) we find that stress is extremely high (dark red) in parts of Morocco, Tunisia, Spain, Italy, Malta, Bulgaria, Greece, Turkey, Ukraine, Israel, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Azerbaijan, and Iran. If we compare the map above to the one below, showing population pressure in the Mediterranean region (in 2009), we find that baseline water stress occurs around many of the big cities as expected.

Population density around the Mediterranean

Source: UNEP-Grid (2009)

City regions along the Mediterranean east coast in Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and Egypt have high population density in close proximity to each other. This at the same time as they suffer from extremely high baseline water stress is like begging for a conflict. Italy, Spain, Greece and Malta will suffer in the future if they don't do something about their unsustainable water situation immediately. Morocco, north Algeria and Tunisia will also have to address their water situation.

Access to Water in Europe and MENA

Shows level of water risk related to access (% of population without access to safe drinking water). Source: Aqueduct-Water Risk Atlas

People may not perceive water stress as an issue depending on access to water defined as % of population without access to improved drinking water. Here we see the situation being severe (>20%) in countries undergoing conflict such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan and large parts of North Africa. In the map below we can see that Spain, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Cyprus all have desalination plants (red ring). This requires lots of energy, most likely from fossil fuels, that many countries can’t afford to spend and it only furthers global warming. Relying on desalinated water is a very risky strategy.

Water infrastructure around the Mediterranean Basin

Source: UNEP-Grid (2009)

From all the above pictures it is not difficult to figure out that water stress, together with climate change and peaking fossil fuels will lead to migration and conflict without any foresight or planning ahead. Water is essential for all life, without sufficient water resources people have no option but to move as ecosystems dry out. Relying on groundwater pumping and fossil aquifers with little respect for ecological limits or plans for collecting rainwater is a disaster in the making, of which we are seeing the first signs. Furthermore, explosive population growth in the MENA-region following their oil boom have lead to far more people than the arid landscape can provide for. The only reason this population increase was even possible was due to fossil aquifers now empty and massive amounts of energy from oil that has been used to desalinate water from the ocean. But these are finite resources. Thus the crisis we now see in the Middle East was foreseeable, it was only ever a question of when, not if. The German Advisory Council on Global Change reported on these risk already in 2007. Most other European countries must also have been aware of these risks. A little planning could have gone a long way but all we see now instead is chaos.

Migration pattern due to ecological degradation and climate change

Areas where drought, desertification, and other forms of water scarcity are estimated are expected to worsen and could contribute to people migrating away from these areas to secure their livelihoods. Main projected trajectories are added where climate change-related migration can be expected in the future. (Source: Bogardi and Warner, 2009).
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Disappearing snowpack and massive forest fires in California

Images of the snow cover in the Sierra Nevada in California and Nevada showing average winter snowfall, 2010 compared with 2015. Credit: NASA/MODIS

Getting drier and drier

California cannot catch a break from the massive climate disruption that now plagues the exceptionally dry region. New measurements from the University of Arizona show that 2015 has experienced the lowest level of snowpack in California's Sierra Nevada mountains in the past 500 years.The winter of 2014/15 was extreme and the low levels have contributed to the three year ongoing drought in California, which has also experienced extreme wild fires this summer. Researchers say that climate change is making the situation worse as higher temperatures lead to more severe drought.

In April the governor declared the first-ever mandatory water restrictions throughout the state. The lack of snow in 2015 stems from extremely low winter precipitation combined with record high temperatures in California in January. Right now, more than 100,000 acres of northern California are on fire while thousands flee their homes. The governor has called a state of emergency. Below is a stunning video of a man fleeing Anderson Springs.
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Abrupt climate changes in the past

Abrupt climate changes to drier conditions impacted the fall of ancient civilisations in the fertile crescent

New research reveals that some of the earliest civilisations in the Middle East and the Fertile Crescent may have been affected by abrupt climate change. Abrupt climate changes occur in the span of years to decades.

A team of international scientists led by researchers from the University of Miami have found that during the first half of the last interglacial period known as the Holocene epoch, which began about 12,000 years ago and continues today, the Middle East most likely experienced wetter conditions in comparison with the last 6,000 years, when the conditions were drier and dustier.

The Fertile Crescent, a region in west Asia that extends from Iran and the Arabian Peninsula to the eastern Mediterranean Sea and northern Egypt is one of the most climatically dynamic regions in the world and is widely considered the birthplace of early human civilisations. The research team found that transitions in several major civilisations across this region, as evidenced by the available historical and archaeological records, coincided with episodes of high atmospheric dust. Higher fluxes of dust are attributed to drier conditions across the region over the last 5,000 years.

Credit: Arash Sharifi
Climate variability during the past 5000 years is shown in the diagram above. The vertical orange bands denote periods of dry and dusty conditions, which correlate to historical records of drought and famine. Transitions between ruling dynasties (grey arrows) in Iran and North Mesopotamia coincides with the episodes of dry and dusty condition in the region.
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Wake up call for California?

US Drought Monitor

Worst drought in a century

Last couple of years (2012-2014) California has experienced severe drought conditions. However, the worst effects won’t be felt until this year when the conditions continue due to lack of precipitation and record heat. This winter has been the warmest on record in California, resulting in less snow and rain. The overall trend toward drought persistence has continued, depleting already low snowpacks and reducing spring runoff for much of the region. The lack of snow raises concerns for this years spring and summer water supplies.

Griffin & Anchukaitis (2014)
California's record warm winter comes after the warmest year on record globally, 2014. The 2012-2014 Californian drought has already been claimed to be the worst drought in 1200 years, according to a new study. 

Last week governor Jerry Brown declared restrictions for water use for the first time in California history. Over 400 local water plants are now forced to reduce water consumption by 25% compared to 2013 levels. Other restrictions include: a ban on garden irrigation other than drip irrigation, limits on golf course and churchyard irrigation, detailed water use reporting by farmers etc. 

Previously, groundwater was only used as reserves but now they are pumping like crazy. Some regions have reported collapsing soil and salt intrusion, both a sign of overpumping. Despite the very serious water scarcity, California is the only state in Western US that have no limits on private pumping or consumption of groundwater. 

Farmers can buy water rights from one another and they can pump as much groundwater as they like. As a result, the state's groundwater has been depleted considerably. Gov. Brown recently signed a restricting groundwater use law but it will take years to implement and it doesn't require groundwater basins being run sustainably until 2040. Too little too late, in my opinion. 

Colorado river groundwater is also disappearing at a stunning rate. Streamflow from the river is the most overallocated in the world. Demand for this renewable resource is now outstripping supply, according to a 2014 study. Between December 2004 and November 2013, more than 75% of the water lost in the Colorado River Basin was from groundwater. The region has been experiencing drought conditions for the last ten years according NOAA.

Because of the long duration of these drought conditions, all kinds of people are becoming interested in expert opinion on climate-related topics. Unfortunately so far it seams like most are only interested in whom to blame. Hopefully Californians and the rest of Americans will start realising that climate change is already happening, and effecting them personally. Maybe then negotiations on climate change will take a turn for the better, but it has to happen before December 2015.
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