Peak Resources: water

Showing posts with label water. Show all posts

Source: FAO Aquastat, Oxford Analytica

When people from the West and its mainstream media try to analyse what's happening in the Middle East all they talk about is armed conflict and war. But never do they mention the deep fundamental drivers of energy, water scarcity and climate change.

Many countries in the Middle East are extremely vulnerable and on the verge of break down because they cannot deal with mounting economic/energy and environmental costs. Only a little disturbance is needed to make these states fall apart and then all hell can break loose. It has nothing to do with what type of people they are, its simply a matter of survival that brings out the worst in people. When water resources dry up, agriculture collapse, there's no way to make and income and food becomes unaffordable people tend to riot no matter which country. Thats what happened during the French revolution, after 1 million died from famine and peasants turned on the ruling elite.

Displaying a complete lack of understanding of the situation, and utter lack of morality, the imperial powers decided to try and grab the regions oil resources by getting rid of Saddam Hussein but instead created a power vacuum that was filled by al-Qaeda extremists who rapidly transformed into the Islamic State. Then followed by a proxy war over resources and power between many different actors in the region. Never ending fighting with no real benefits for anyone involved. The US "divide and rule" strategy is an utter failure.

Intensifying the fight against extremists doesn't deal with the fundamental drivers of why they exist in the first place. Instead its producing more extremists as the conditions that laid the groundwork for the rise of IS are worsening. The long-term ecological crisis of especially water stress is worsening in the region. Severe drought conditions intensified by water mismanagement and climate change have led to failed crops and lack of clean drinking water. Leading to increasing food import reliance and pushing people to move into the cities where there are no job opportunities, creating tensions. Then government subsidies for food and fuel get slashed as state revenues from falling oil exports decline. This at a time when oil and food prices have steadily risen and have had major spikes on the international market. That's the perfect storm.

Absolutely nothing have been done to build local capacity to cope with extreme weather or manage ecosystems more sustainably. The conditions of deepening water scarcity are projected to intensify in coming years and decades. Meanwhile population keeps growing. And that's why the future in the region looks bleak. The US idea of turning Iraq into a booming oil economy is simply nonsense. Even if there is still more oil left in Iraq, compared to Syria, Yemen or Egypt, they too will face peak oil within a decade or so. Hedging your entire future on oil is utterly idiotic and as we witness very destructive.

Yemen reached a production peak in oil in 2001 and has now practically collapsed. Acute water scarcity and lack of food is reaching levels of mass famine. Nationwide fuel shortages are routine and economic activities have come to a halt. Livelihoods are destroyed, people starve and live in misery, and yet the US and UK support Saudi Arabia's bombing campaign of the country.

The Conflict Shoreline by Eyal Weizman. Shows the aridity line, areas of about 200 millimetres of rainfall a year, considered the minimum for growing cereal crops on a large scale without irrigation, and western drone strikes in red dots

Egypt has become a net importer of oil and food and is struggling to pay its bills for a growing population. Poor water management (irrigation, pollution, dumping of waste) and growing demand has led to water scarcity in the country. Cairo residents don't have access to water for large portions of the day. The U.N. World Water Development report for 2018 warns that Egypt is currently below the U.N.’s threshold of water poverty and dramatically heading towards absolute water scarcity (500 m3 per capita).

Even if we are able to limit global warming to 2 degrees the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will become unbearably hot and many parts unlivable in the coming future. Prolonged heat waves and dust storms will plague the already arid region. Destroying much of the region's agricultural potential. Researcher are expecting a climate exodus from the region. Of which we have seen only the beginning.

Climate mayhem, falling net energy and debt deflation

We are in for another global oil supply crunch from 2018 onwards that many experts say will trigger another severe economic recession if not depression. A fragile global economy, with a massive debt overhang, cannot handle too high oil prices. A large portion of most countries budgets, and individuals budgets as well, are spent on fossil fuel energy. That's why rapid price increases (over $60 per barrel) crushes demand and flips the economy over into a recession. In turn, leading to the bankruptcy of non-profitable unconventional energy ventures like tar sands and fracking. Thus further reducing supply over the long term.

Since the early 1970s global energy costs have steadily increased. Even if oil prices have oscillated with recurring spikes and drops, as the economy tries to adjust, the overall trend is a steady increase. This is due to the fact that extraction has become increasingly difficult and costly, yielding ever lower return on investment. The problem of course is that we built our economies based on cheap energy that yielded relatively high net energy to society. But that is a thing of the past and now we are struggling to afford our current lifestyles. Thats basically why we started this massive global debt bubble, pulling forward future consumption with cheap credit. But costs will eventually have to be paid.

We have now reached a point when all the energy and resources available to society are required just to maintain our existing level of complexity. A phenomenon puzzling many commentators, calling it secular stagnation. All these factors have made the global economy so fragile that even small perturbations from climate change, wars or falling credit could tip the system over into a deflationary spiral. With economic inequalities already increasing, increasing social instability, this is a recipe for disaster.

No economy will be able to recover unless it transitions to non-fossil fuel energy sources and writes down its debts. And even then net energy will likely be much lower, meaning that society still has to lower its overall consumption of energy and resources. Implying a voluntary measure to reduce organizational complexity in society. Something few previous civilisations managed, perhaps the British did when they dismantled their empire.

Implication for food security

Global food prices have increased steadily since 2005, about the time of global peak oil, now at 1970s highs or above. Further exacerbating the problem is booming populations, freshwater scarcity and climate change.

Today’s population levels depend on fossil fuels and industrial agriculture. Especially vulnerable to rising food prices are people with low purchasing power and without subsistence farming to fall back on. We know that food price increases that reach 200 on the FAO index have led to riots and unrest.

Many countries in the Middle East are especially vulnerable due to convergence of several different crises. State revenue losses from falling oil exports, due to depleting resources and higher domestic consumption, with a need to cut food and fuel subsidies usually make people very upset. Especially when, as is the case in the region, people have no way of making a living coupled with overexploited water reservoirs and eroded soils. As if that wasn't enough, scorching heat and significant risk of recurrent droughts makes the entire region utterly unsustainable. Without energy they have nothing. The chances for further conflict and wars in the region are high. Massive, continuing, migration flows towards Europe is to be expected.

The infamous ‘Doomsday Clock’ is again at two and a half minutes to midnight - the closest since 1953

Mohamed Ataya, a 31-year-old Syrian tends to his plants on the rooftop of his damaged building in the Syrian rebel-held town of Arbin, in the eastern Ghouta region on the outskirts of the capital Damascus last week. Ataya, who used to be a professional football player before the war, cultivates seeds for sale. Reddit March, 2017.

The crisis of civilisation

People seem confused, deluded by mainstream media into to wishful thinking, about the current state of affairs in the world. But there is that uneasy feeling that all the alarming reports about peak oil, climate change, desertification, species mass extinction, freshwater scarcity, dying coral reefs, melting of polar ice caps and toxification of our environment are piling up. In fact, we are currently living in a time of a collapsing civilisation, the end to wasteful resource use and reliance on fossil fuels. Everything is becoming increasingly expensive leading to falling standards of living and a majority of the world's population who can barely afford food, shelter or gas for transport anymore. When food becomes too expensive people riot and revolt against the ruling elite. Conflict arises and sometimes it breaks out into wars. Syria being the prime example. For Syrians who are still within the country's borders a total and rapid collapse has long since been underway and is continuing to this day. Look at the man watering his seeds in a city of concrete ruins. Its utterly sad and beautiful at the same time. That is reality. And we will be seeing more of it as entropy starts moving in from the periphery of the global economy towards the centre.

Source: Lagi et al. (2011)

Since it's clear now, almost fifty years after The Limits to Growth (1972) was published, that humans will not take preemptive action to avoid a collapse of the system, the global economy will have to shrink. And the process has been underway for some time now, especially since 2008, it's just that some regions will feel it much harder and sooner than others. Nobody is safe from its crushing effects, that's why building resilience is important for every community on Earth.

People who are well aware of the seriousness of our current situation are suggesting radical ideas because they know there will be mayhem as hundreds of millions of people will be displaced due to a rapidly degrading biosphere and unstable climate.

“Why not create a climate passport, actually, give it to all those people who cannot live anymore in their original homes, which gives them access to all the countries who destroyed their home, like the United States” - H.J Schellnhuber (Climate Change: A Last Call for the Planet, 2018)

Well, sure... that probably wont happen but it shows the inequality of the issue and where, to the centre of the global economy, people with the possibility to do so will be fleeing as their own areas are devastated. The world's richest 10% account for half the carbon emissions while the poorest 3.5 billion account for just a tenth.

Now, climate is not the only issue here, it's just one of the symptoms of a full world. Syria suffered lost state revenue from declining oil exports due to a peak in production, massive population growth, reduced food and fuel subsidies, at the same time as they had the worst drought in 900 years. It's a combination of converging crises that crushes nations that lack resilience. This is only one way that collapse manifests. But it will impact every nation, either direct or indirect, and cause instability and hardship for ordinary people while a small percentage of the rich continue to overexploit remaining resources.

Map of the world's lakes with surface areas of 10 hectares or more. Dark blue areas reflect the high concentration of lakes in those regions. Credit: HydroLAB, McGill University

New research from the McGill University, published in Nature Communications, maps the distribution of our planet's lakes. It clearly shows how the last ice age shaped and formed many of the 1.4 million lakes, larger than 10 hectares, that contain 15% of all the lake water in the world. Dark blue color indicates density of lakes, and as the map shows the highest density can be found in the northern hemisphere, in regions previously covered in large ice sheets. The rest of the worlds lake water, 85%, can be found in the 10 largest lakes. About half of the lakes are freshwater and the other half are salt lakes.

Global distribution of water volume stored in lakes and reservoirs with a surface area of at least 10 ha. Source: Messager et al. (2016)

If we look at individual countries (table below) we find that Canada, Russia, USA, China, Sweden, Brazil and Norway rank in the top in regards to number of lakes and area (km2). While Russia stands out with the largest volume (103 km3) due to its many deep water lakes (e.g. lake baikal and lake vostok). Thinking in terms of drinking water, volume would probably be the most important parameter. But then again, distribution, pollution and many other factors come into play when determining access to safe drinking water.

Countries with most lakes

Country	Number of lakes (103)	Area (103 km2)	Volume (103 km3)
Canada	879.8	856.5	12.6
Russia	201.2	667.4	102.2
USA	102.5	340.3	23.5
China	23.8	81.0	1.0
Sweden	22.6	34.3	0.5
Brazil	20.9	31.4	0.2
Norway	20.0	13.9	0.3

The study only focuses on mapping out lakes it doesn’t say anything about what state these lakes are in etc. What we can tell is that the distribution of lakes is very uneven, very few along the equator and plenty in the north. Since water is such a critical resource and we’re already witnessing extreme heatwaves and extended droughts along the equator (e.g. southwestern US, Middle East) people are already realising that agriculture has to shift further north to survive, as do they.

Photo: Liselotte Tunemar, SGU

A dry spring in the southeast

Measuring stations in Böda on Öland, Gotska Sandön and in Ronneby show record low groundwater levels that normally would only occur during August-September. According to Geological Survey of Sweden, groundwater levels in this region have been dropping continuously for the last five years. However, cyclical variations of high and low groundwater levels of 11-12 years are not uncommon.

Without large amounts of rainfall in April, before the growing season starts, groundwater levels will not be able to return to normal and communities may experience problems of water availability. Shallow wells are most affected by low groundwater levels as they risk drying out. In low lying coastal areas there is also a risk of saltwater intrusion. Out of 9 million 1.2 million people in Sweden rely on groundwater from private wells.

Restrictions on irrigation on Gotland came into force already on 1st of April since the region want to avoid heavy restrictions during the summer when tourism is booming. Gotland municipality has also decided to build a desalination plant that should be operational this summer according to NyTeknik. Desalination is however a very energy intensive and expensive process but perhaps the brackish Baltic water is less costly to desalinate.

Groundwater levels above normal in blue and way below normal in red. Source: SGU (2016)

It is likely that southeast Sweden will increasingly face problems of groundwater scarcity while the rest of the country will experience higher groundwater levels as a consequence of climate change.

Spring has so far been unusually warm which means an earlier growing season and migration of birds. March was warmer than average in the entire country, with 3-4C above average in parts of middle and northern Sweden.

Source: SMHI

Dust storm sweeping across Syria, the Mafraq region of Jordan, and part of Turkey's Mediterranean coast (7th of September, 2015). Credit: NASA Earth Observatory- Aqua Modis

Global pressures on finite water resources have grown rapidly over the past decades as a result of population growth, increasing per capita consumption and industrial agriculture. Overexploitation of groundwater in agricultural regions of particular concern are north-western India, the north China plain, the Great Plains of North America and the Central Valley in California (Rockström et al. 2014). Climate change is already impacting the number of people living in absolute water scarcity (Schewe et al. 2013). Water scarcity is a recurrent imbalance that arises from an overuse of water resources, caused by consumption being significantly higher than the natural renewable availability. Water scarcity can be aggravated by water pollution and drought.

River basins, with withdrawals exceeding more than 40–60% of available water resources, experience severe water scarcity. Many economically important river basins around the world are suffering from unsustainable withdrawals of water that impinge on ecological needs or have surpassed ecological limits such as the Amu and Syr Darya, the Indus, the Nile, the Colorado, the Orange, the Lerma Chapala, the Murray Darling and the Yellow River basin.

Global hydroregions - population pressures on water security

Source: Meybeck et al. 2013

The map above shows a relative pressure indicator (incorporating population density and runoff) for river basins in different hydroregions of the world. We can see that dry belts (medium density and very low runoff) around the equator and northern mid-latitude (high density and medium runoff) have the highest pressure on water security, while hydroregions with minimal pressure are due to high runoff and/or low population density (e.g. Amazon and Orinoco basin, Boreal hydroregions, Northern Australia basins) (Meybeck et al. 2013). Water security pressure range from the most to the least densely populated: Asia > Europe > North America > Africa > South America > Australia. Interesting to note is the difference between the “Old World” (Asia, MENA, Europe) and the “New World” (Americas and Australia).

Overall Water Risk around the Mediterranean

Shows level of overall water risk (physical quantity, quality and access).
Source: Aqueduct-Water Risk Atlas

In the map above we see which countries and city regions around the Mediterranean that suffer most acutely from overall water risk. London, Budapest, Bucharest, Valencia, Naples, Odessa, Donetsk, Sofia, Istanbul all show signs of high overall water risk due to population pressure. Countries in the dry belt of North Africa and the Middle East (MENA) all show signs of high overall water risk, either from depletion of water resources, pollution or lack of access to clean drinking water.

Baseline Water Stress around the Mediterranean

Shows baseline water stress (the ratio of total annual withdrawals to total available renewable supply). Source: Aqueduct-Water Risk Atlas

If we look at baseline water stress defined as the ratio of total annual water withdrawals to total available renewable supply (accounting for upstream consumptive use) we find that stress is extremely high (dark red) in parts of Morocco, Tunisia, Spain, Italy, Malta, Bulgaria, Greece, Turkey, Ukraine, Israel, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Azerbaijan, and Iran. If we compare the map above to the one below, showing population pressure in the Mediterranean region (in 2009), we find that baseline water stress occurs around many of the big cities as expected.

Population density around the Mediterranean

Source: UNEP-Grid (2009)

City regions along the Mediterranean east coast in Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and Egypt have high population density in close proximity to each other. This at the same time as they suffer from extremely high baseline water stress is like begging for a conflict. Italy, Spain, Greece and Malta will suffer in the future if they don't do something about their unsustainable water situation immediately. Morocco, north Algeria and Tunisia will also have to address their water situation.

Access to Water in Europe and MENA

Shows level of water risk related to access (% of population without access to safe drinking water). Source: Aqueduct-Water Risk Atlas

People may not perceive water stress as an issue depending on access to water defined as % of population without access to improved drinking water. Here we see the situation being severe (>20%) in countries undergoing conflict such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan and large parts of North Africa. In the map below we can see that Spain, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Cyprus all have desalination plants (red ring). This requires lots of energy, most likely from fossil fuels, that many countries can’t afford to spend and it only furthers global warming. Relying on desalinated water is a very risky strategy.

Water infrastructure around the Mediterranean Basin

Source: UNEP-Grid (2009)

From all the above pictures it is not difficult to figure out that water stress, together with climate change and peaking fossil fuels will lead to migration and conflict without any foresight or planning ahead. Water is essential for all life, without sufficient water resources people have no option but to move as ecosystems dry out. Relying on groundwater pumping and fossil aquifers with little respect for ecological limits or plans for collecting rainwater is a disaster in the making, of which we are seeing the first signs. Furthermore, explosive population growth in the MENA-region following their oil boom have lead to far more people than the arid landscape can provide for. The only reason this population increase was even possible was due to fossil aquifers now empty and massive amounts of energy from oil that has been used to desalinate water from the ocean. But these are finite resources. Thus the crisis we now see in the Middle East was foreseeable, it was only ever a question of when, not if. The German Advisory Council on Global Change reported on these risk already in 2007. Most other European countries must also have been aware of these risks. A little planning could have gone a long way but all we see now instead is chaos.

Migration pattern due to ecological degradation and climate change

Areas where drought, desertification, and other forms of water scarcity are estimated are expected to worsen and could contribute to people migrating away from these areas to secure their livelihoods. Main projected trajectories are added where climate change-related migration can be expected in the future. (Source: Bogardi and Warner, 2009).

The Amazon River in Brazil. Source: NASA

The Bloodstream of the Biosphere

Human pressure on the Earth’s Biosphere is so large that geologists have announced that we live in a new era, the Anthropocene, in which humanity is the largest driving force of global change. The mounting stresses on the biosphere to support 7,3 billion (to become 9 billion) people may cause collapses and major shifts in ecosystems, from local to global scales. The ability to generate social and economic well-being is now threatened. Freshwater is at the centre of this change.

Freshwater

Freshwater is the bloodstream of the terrestrial Biosphere. Greenwater (used by plants) and blue water (rivers and groundwater) are linked across all scales. It is a resource that supports human health, industry and energy generation. Many water systems have undergone ‘regime shifts’ whereby disturbances forces the water ecosystem to flip to an alternative stable state. For example, the Baltic Sea has gone from a low nutrient clear state to a high nutrient murky state due to eutrophication and overfishing. Potential future regime shift, with global implications, include the dieback of the Amazonian rainforest, Arctic ice loss and the Atlantic deep-water formation.

Water for food

Food production is the world’s largest user of freshwater. In many countries such as Brazil and China diets are changing to include more meat and dairy product which increases food water requirements. Globally, as much as 40% of the grain produced is converted to animal feed. By 2050, currently available water for croplands will not be sufficient for producing enough food for humanity. Agricultural water management is key to lowering freshwater depletion rates and increasing farm productivity. Global consumptive use of blue water has been estimated at 2600 km3 per year. Several regions already suffer from the widespread impacts of the overuse of blue water. River basins with withdrawals exceeding more than 40-60% of available water resources experience severe water scarcity. The number of people living in areas which suffer from blue water scarcity is soaring. In 2005, about 35% of the global population where living in areas with chronic water shortage.

Population living under water scarcity. Source: Rockström et al. (2014)

Unsustainable water use

About half of the river water withdrawn for societal use has evaporated, literally consumed during use, and about 25% of the rivers on land are highly affected by overuse of blue water. River depletion is considerable in irrigated regions of the world and many economically important river basins are already surpassing their ecological limits. Blue water security is subject to a high level of vulnerability to change in both Asia and Africa. For example, the Indus and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins upon which some 1.5 billion people depend are highly vulnerable to change. Zones of particular concern are north-western India, the north China plain, the Great Plains of the US and the Central Valley in California. At the national scale, 5 countries are withdrawing more groundwater than can be recharged in aquifers, these include: Saudi Arabia, Libya, Egypt, Pakistan and Iran.

Climate Change and rainwater

Until recently, humans have been able to assume that precipitation was relatively stable and predictable. However, new insights now show that this assumption no longer holds. Climate change is a major driving force of a changing water landscape and its projected that a 2 °C increase in average global temperatures will result in an increase of 40% of people living in absolute water scarcity. Floods and droughts will become more prominent and rainfall patterns could change. There are large uncertainties about future rain, monsoon and snow patterns that influence river flows. Glacial melt has been widely observed in the mountain water towers of the world, including the Himalayas, the Andes, the Alps and the Kilimanjaro.

US Drought Monitor

Worst drought in a century

Last couple of years (2012-2014) California has experienced severe drought conditions. However, the worst effects won’t be felt until this year when the conditions continue due to lack of precipitation and record heat. This winter has been the warmest on record in California, resulting in less snow and rain. The overall trend toward drought persistence has continued, depleting already low snowpacks and reducing spring runoff for much of the region. The lack of snow raises concerns for this years spring and summer water supplies.

Griffin & Anchukaitis (2014)

California's record warm winter comes after the warmest year on record globally, 2014. The 2012-2014 Californian drought has already been claimed to be the worst drought in 1200 years, according to a new study.

Last week governor Jerry Brown declared restrictions for water use for the first time in California history. Over 400 local water plants are now forced to reduce water consumption by 25% compared to 2013 levels. Other restrictions include: a ban on garden irrigation other than drip irrigation, limits on golf course and churchyard irrigation, detailed water use reporting by farmers etc.

Previously, groundwater was only used as reserves but now they are pumping like crazy. Some regions have reported collapsing soil and salt intrusion, both a sign of overpumping. Despite the very serious water scarcity, California is the only state in Western US that have no limits on private pumping or consumption of groundwater.

Farmers can buy water rights from one another and they can pump as much groundwater as they like. As a result, the state's groundwater has been depleted considerably. Gov. Brown recently signed a restricting groundwater use law but it will take years to implement and it doesn't require groundwater basins being run sustainably until 2040. Too little too late, in my opinion.

Colorado river groundwater is also disappearing at a stunning rate. Streamflow from the river is the most overallocated in the world. Demand for this renewable resource is now outstripping supply, according to a 2014 study. Between December 2004 and November 2013, more than 75% of the water lost in the Colorado River Basin was from groundwater. The region has been experiencing drought conditions for the last ten years according NOAA.

Because of the long duration of these drought conditions, all kinds of people are becoming interested in expert opinion on climate-related topics. Unfortunately so far it seams like most are only interested in whom to blame. Hopefully Californians and the rest of Americans will start realising that climate change is already happening, and effecting them personally. Maybe then negotiations on climate change will take a turn for the better, but it has to happen before December 2015.

No, this post is not about the movie from 1995 starring Kevin Costner in the role of a mutated mariner. Although there is much attention in mainstream media on global sea level rise it is probably not the most serious issue we face from climate change. Instead, it's the scarcity of freshwater that concern many scientists and farmers.

Water scarcity

We live on a water planet and life itself depend on water. Freshwater resources are fundamental for maintaining human health, agricultural production, economic activity as well as critical ecosystem functions. Currently, 780 million people, about 1 in 9, lack access to clean drinking water and 2.5 billion people don't have access to a toilet (water.org). As population and demand grows, new constraints on water resources are appearing, raising questions about limits to water availability and its potential consequences.

Global groundwater crisis

Groundwater supplies in the world's driest regions are approaching the point of crisis according to a recent commentary in the journal Nature Climate Change. Famiglietti (2014) at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory shows satellite data confirming that the amount of water stored in seven of the world's major aquifers declined drastically since the early 2000s (see chart). Many of these regions are grappling with drought. Californian farmers are facing unprecedented water cutbacks (Greenwire) and in September a new bill was passed concerning management of groundwater on a statewide basis. Northern China is in the midst of its worst drought in 60 years and armed bandits are institution illegal "water taxes" on small villages in India (Greenwire). Famiglietti says that "It's worse than people realize in part because declining groundwater reserves don't normally get included in assessments of drought" (Climatewire). While reversing climate change is not a possibility, managing our groundwater is.

Big global aquifers have headed in one direction in recent years: down

Source: Famiglietti (2014).

Management

A key factor in groundwater depletion is that water laws do not do much to manage aquifers. Active water management requires collaboration across institutional levels and public debate on how to allocate and preserve the remaining water ecosystem so it benefits all parties. Groundwater monitoring and management has been very neglected in most parts of the world where aquifers serve as a crucial source of supply for irrigated agriculture and cities. If not handled properly, the results will likely be rising food prices that in worst case scenario could lead to hunger and civil unrest (NECSI).

Conflict

World Food Program, 2009

Conflict over water is not a new phenomena but it may become more common as climate change and population growth increases pressure on fresh water resources. Some argue that there has been an increase in water-related violence globally, in relation to development projects and economic activities (Pacific Institute). The devastating civil war that began in Syria in 2011 had a direct link to water scarcity and climatic conditions, six year drought, that played a role in the deterioration of Syria's economic conditions and led to mass migrations of rural communities into cities (Gleick, 2014). In 2012, scientists from New England Complex Systems Institute warned about the risk of rising food prices, FAO food price index above 210, leading to civil unrest and riots across the globe.

Food prices (black line) and food riots and the Arab Spring (red lines)

Source: M. Lagi, K.Z. Bertrand, Y. Bar-Yam, 2011

Conclusion

Climate change redistributes water around the planet, with dry areas becoming dryer and wet areas getting wetter (i.e. droughts and floods become more common). This puts extra stress on fresh water ecosystems and reservoirs. Combined with population growth and water mismanagement this can lead to a water crisis that puts extra pressure on a society and in combination with other factors contribute to full scale conflict, especially in cases of trans-boundary water resources. Countries with little resilience to such shocks are thus most vulnerable to a changing climate. This subject area is poorly understood and needs to be researched further as we head into uncertain times.

The Middle East on Fire

Converging crises - Synchronizing failure