Showing posts with label commons. Show all posts

Democracy enough to handle ecological crisis?

Pagoda Japan. Source: WaSZI CCO Creative Commons

How to handle a crisis of overexploitation


Throughout history, agricultural societies have had to struggle with the balance between population growth and maintaining sufficient resources to support themselves. Some failed to manage their resource base sustainably which lead to collapse or disbanding while others took measures to ensure more sustainable use of their lands and persisted. 

In modern times we all assume that democracy is a better option than authoritarian forms of government. Of course no one likes the idea of abuse of power and state violence that usually comes along with such forms of government. But are democracies inherently superior to authoritarian regimes in dealing with crises such as resource depletion? 

To adapt to/or manage scarcity governments may have to do some unpopular things like restricting consumption, manage usage rights of natural resources and punish offenders. Can leaders find support for such policies through elections? Its very much an open question. Small communities have been known to manage pasture lands in a democratic manner more sustainably. But today's societies are huge in comparison. 

Let's look at a historical case in which the Japanese, that had relatively large cities in terms of number even back during feudal times, managed to establish more sustainable forest management through both top-down and bottom-up practices.


Forest Management in Feudal Japan

Ecological crisis


Japan had a serious deforestation problem 300 years ago as a consequence of a growing population and unsustainable forest use. Forests were overexploited by logging mainly for timber and fuelwood. By 1570 Japan's population had reached 10 million people and needs for forest products had increased correspondingly. With the advent of the Tokugawa shogunate and peace, followed by rapid growth of cities and construction of castles, temples and shrines, logging increased during the 1600s to a scale never before experienced in Japan. Conflict between villagers and rulers over the use of forest lands became intense. By 1670 the population had increased to nearly 30 million and all the old growth forest had been completely logged, except for in Hokkaido. The supply of timber and other forest products was running out. Soil erosion, floods, landslides and barren lands were becoming common. Japan was headed for ecological disaster. 


Feudal lords take action


There were three principal types of forest land tenure during the Tokugawa period (1603-1867). Feudal lords tenure, communal tenure and individual tenure. Individual tenure failed to develop because individual land ownership was prohibited in principle by the Tokugawa Shogunate. Therefore, almost all Japanese forest land tenure was either the feudal lords tenure or communal. 

Access to the forest owned by feudal lords was strictly limited and those who logged illegally were severely punished. A typical example of forest owned and managed by a feudal lord was the Kiso area that was owned and managed by a relative of the Shogun.

The two major cities Edo and Osaka and forest management places like Kiso. Source: Iwamoto (2002)



Before the Tokugawa period, Kiso was covered with thick forest but by the late 17th century iso forest resource had deteriorated greatly. The feudal lord therefore carried out the first reform in 1665, instituting seedling protection, strengthening of patrols and selective cutting. The reform reduced timber production by half and cut the feudal lords income severely. Only a few years later the lord ordered an increase in timber production for financial reasons. Even though the reform first failed the second reform was planned in 1724. In this reform, timber production was reduced by more than 60% and this time it succeeded, carrying on for 30 years and thus allowing the forest to recover. 


Common lands


During the Tokugawa period most Japanese people made their living by agriculture, managing uncultivated mountainous common lands surrounding their villages. Common forest lands provided a wide variety of ecosystem services such as timber, fuelwood, fertilizer, feed, clean water, erosion control etc. In the late 17th century, intensive forestry with artificial planting was begun by members (farmers) of the commons in response to increasing demand for wood. People planted valuable conifers such as sugi and hinoki and developing new techniques for planting, thinning and pruning plantations necessary for high-quality timber. Wandering scholars wrote silviculture manuals and traveled around the country spreading the new technology from village to village. Forest management stimulated new social institutions for the ruling elite and villagers to cooperate on timber production in a way that provided villagers incentives to produce timber: yamawari (dividing use rights of common lands among families), nenkiyama (long term leases of forest lands to villagers by the rulers), and buwakibayashi (villagers producing timber on rulers land and sharing the harvest with the elites). Slowly but surely reforesting took place. 

Lessons from history


First of, action on the part of the ruling elite and villagers did not happen until forest resources were severely degraded and conflict arose between the two. New management practices were forced upon the population and breaking the rules meant severe punishment. Reforms sometimes failed due to financial interests and needs. Relying heavily on one sector for the majority of income was a bad strategy. A more diversified income probably helped later reforms to succeed. New forest management practices lead to the development of new social institutions that were more cooperative and respectful of usage rights. During hard times forests may have been overexploited but reforestation efforts during easier times helped prevent the worst of outcomes. The feudal lords were probably not very lenient towards villagers and ordinary people must have, at first, disliked the decision to cut back on timber production and being punished for logging in certain areas. However, they adapted to this new reality and started planting trees to meet the demand. Its a case of non-democratic rule that actually had a positive outcome in terms of more sustainable use of Japan's forests. Now, it should be mentioned that forests were again overexploitation during the second world war. And perhaps the previous reforms only succeeded due to times of peace. It also should be mentioned that after the war forests, both from common and lords lands, where taken up into public lands managed by the state. But it's still an interesting example to ponder. Perhaps a mix of both top-down and bottom-up rules is needed but to achieve successful management but its hard to imagine it happening without some amount of unpopular decision-making if the society is large.

TTIP trade deal and it's impact on democracy

Trade agreement being negotiated behind the scenes

In my last post I had a critical look at the trans-pacific partnership (TTP). And so to be fair and also bring this issue closer to home I will in this post have a look at the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). TTIP is very similar to TTP, a proposed regional free-trade agreement, but between the European Union and the United States. Proponents of TTIP argue that it would result in multilateral economic growth, while critics argue that it would increase corporate power and make markets more difficult to regulate for public benefit. Like TPP this trade agreement has been delayed by leaked draft documents, due to it's secretive nature, but could be finalized by the end of 2014.

Corporate Control

Similar to the case of TTP a very controversial clause in the TTIP is the Investor-state dispute settlements (ISDS). The ISDS would allow corporations to sue governments, for any government action (at any level, including local government level) that limits a corporation's future profits. One example of how the ISDS clause in TTIP would impact countries can be found in the case of the Swedish, part state owned, energy company Vattenfall suing the German government over the issue of terminating nuclear power plants. Vattenfall demands payouts of 4,7 billion euros (Der Spiegel), and has caused outrage in Germany. Other examples includes tobacco companies suing the Australian government over health labeling of cigarettes, and fracking companies suing the Canadian government over environmental protection. The original justification for introducing ISDS in trade agreements was for trade deals with countries where the judicial system was weak in protecting foreign investors. But this is not the case with either the EU or the US. According to the latest UN report on the topic, ISDS cases has increased from 0 in 1992 to 514 in 2012.

Responses by civil society

There is now a growing civil society resistance to TTIP and ISDS inclusion in the TTIP negotiations. Last month there were 450 protest actions across 24 member states (The Greens Europe). The European NGO Finance Watch writes about ISDS that "the very principle of such a mechanism is anti-democratic, because it allows investors to challenge legitimate regulations and other rules that have been created and voted by democratic institutions with a view to protecting their citizens". Corporate Europe Observatory (CEO) has reported that of 560 lobby encounters that the European Commission trade department held to prepare the negotiations, 520 (92%) were with business lobbyists, while only 26 (4%) were with public interest groups (CEO). That must be considered corporate capture. A large number of European scientists have also voiced concern over ISDS legal nature, quote "there is little evidence linking the conclusion of the Treaties to increased flows of foreign direct investment, and there is little evidence that they contribute to other development goals, such as encouraging good governance" (University of Kent). And a recent study from Tufts University has concluded through modelling that TTIP could lead to: net loss in exports for the EU, a net loss in GDP, and a loss in employment of some 600 000 jobs, and the author conclude by stating that "In the current context of austerity, high unemployment and low growth, increasing the pressure on labor incomes would further harm economic activity" (Capaldo, 2014).

Impact on environment, health and food standards

Many environmental organisations fear that the TTIP will ignite a "race to the bottom" regarding environmental regulations in the EU, so that they come to resemble the US far weaker regulatory system. Most likely the TTIP will accelerate the privatization of public goods and services such as National Health systems. This could have tremendous effects on public health. And many analysts agree that TTIP would allow big food corporations to avoid food safety regulations and undermine sustainable agricultural practices in the rush for profits and trade. For example, the US has much weaker standards on animal welfare, ecosystem protection and GMO labeling. These are serious citizen concerns that has not been sufficiently addressed by governments wishing to take part of the TTIP.


Conclusion

Trade unions, consumer groups, environmentalists and digital rights activists are opposed to increasing corporate rights over sovereign nations. Almost all (centre-)left groups in the European Parliament have voted against ISDS. So have the French Assemble and the Dutch Parliament. In Sweden, however, both the moderates (M) and social democrats (S) are positive to the TTIP (ETC, 2013). The current prime minister, Stefan Löfven, has stated that he welcomes the TTIP but that "social justice issues should be included" (ibid). This is a paradox since the (S) representative Mikael Damberg in a leaked document to Cecilia Malmström, the EU commissioner for trade, has signed a letter pushing for ISDS inclusion in TTIP (TTippen.se). The most troubling issue is perhaps how much of the negotiations have been kept secret from public and governmental scrutiny, similar to the TPP. Moreover it seems that countries have become so desperate for economic growth that they are willing to throw everything they worked for, in terms of environmental and health regulation, out the window. I am also surprised that conservatives don't seem to react to this issue as much as the left, one might think that they should be even more concerned with national sovereignty.   

EU members positions on climate and energy targets 2030

Climate targets 2030


European member states are soon to vote for binding targets on greenhouse gas emission reductions and energy targets for 2030 (See last paragraph for update). Below are three maps that can be found on the energy in demand blog that display how EU members have positioned themselves in terms of voting for or against 40% greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, 30% increase in energy efficiency and 30% target for renewable energy by 2030. 

The new coalition government in Sweden seems to have decided to vote no for a binding target for 40% reduction in greenhouse gasses. Some say that the red/green majority got their proposal for higher targets (50%) voted down by the conservatives (M and SD). They may end up having to settle for a 40% reductions target. I'm not sure about the reasons behind the lower targets, no clear information or statements have been given on this issue and many commentators seem confused (Supermiljöbloggen). On the topic of energy efficiency and renewable energy Sweden still shows undecided but my guess and hope is that we will be in favor of the binding agreements as shown below (see in yellow "yes"). 

By the look of it European members are not really showing any strong leadership the year before UN Climate Change conference in Paris (2015). To reach the international goal of staying below 2 degrees warming the world's greenhouse gas emissions has to drop 80 % by 2050 (compared to 1990). Some environmental experts, such as Johan Rockström, argue that to even have a chance of reaching that goal the EU needs to have a target of at least 60% reduction in greenhouse gasses emissions by 2030. Decisions are to be made next week at the European Council. There is still time to take action! Below are two petitions you can sign to show your support for stronger European climate targets.

--> Demand European Climate Action - Act Now
--> EU: give children the future they want - Avaaz
Shows countries leaning towards 40% reduction in greenhouse gasses
Shows countries leaning towards 30% energy efficiency
Shows countries leaning towards the goal of 30% renewable energy

UPDATE! 24th October

The European Council decided Europe's climate future yesterday. The results are lower than many environmentalists and scientists hoped for, set at targets of 27% energy efficiency, 27% renewables and 40% GHG emissions to be met by 2030 (Supermiljöbloggen). The European Environmental Bureau (EEB) condemned last nights outcome which escalated into a race to the bottom. Jeremy Wates, EEB Secretary General, said that “With this abysmal result, Europe’s leaders have failed their citizens and failed the world. More and more extreme weather events such as flooding and wildfires are already hurting people and their communities all across Europe. Adopting a set of targets to cut energy waste by 40%, roll out sustainable renewables to 45% of the energy mix and cut emissions by 60% is what the science of climate change demands, and is also what will help Europe get on its feet.” (EEB Press release). Others say that it is a first good step, showing other regions of the world that Europe has ambitions to lower greenhouse emissions. However, any final decisions about targets may change in accordance with the UN climate summit in 2015. The Swedish representatives failed to reach higher targets and seems to have focused most of their energy on voting each other down. The conservatives voted down red/greens higher targets, after which S made up some new much less ambitious target that in the end only got the support of SD.

Storytelling drives change

Facts don't drive change

Facts are of course very important to making the right decisions in regards to environmental problems and potential solutions. But facts alone, don't engage people and drive change on a larger scale. For that to happen a wider cultural conversation is needed. Telling a story is a more effective way to send a complex message and start a dialogue. It goes through emotions and connects with logic, giving real examples of change.
Source: Story of stuff
Storytelling and adapting messages to specific target groups
Psychology plays an important role in how we humans view information and act based upon new facts. Environmental communication needs to understand this and focus on how to inspire people, rather than scare them. In this case, storytelling can be a successful way of communicating sustainability concerns and visions to the broader public or a specific target group. Communicating a coherent story is something many companies are good at but environmental organizations have only just begun using this strategy for outreach. Creative initiatives like the Story of Stuff have started to do this by helping to shift the conversation from the buying of more stuff to having less, but better, stuff. 

What makes a good story?

To help friends, colleagues and your community become more aware of environmental issues and sustainable development, use stories. The model suggested below can be applied as much to articles (e.g. blogs, newspapers) as to videos, podcasts, oral presentations or other media. Key ingredients for a good story include:
- It gets noticed!
- It tells a story of real people and/or real situations
- It gives a living example of the broader, more abstract message you wish to convey
- It expresses a single, main idea
- It adopts a tone (e.g. sad, happy, excited) to go with the issue
- It touches emotions by speaking to universal values (e.g. love, fear, bravery)
- It uses rational arguments, appealing to logic (e.g. using numbers and placing the issue within a broader context)

Nature is speaking

Another interesting example of attractive storytelling can be found in the project natureisspeaking.org by Conservation International (CI). In this collaboration between companies (Virgin, Radical media, hp etc.) and CI, famous actors and actresses take on the voices of different parts of nature such as the oceans, the soil, and the rainforests. With stunning images, nature sounds and famous narrators this campaign makes for a compelling story about the human-nature relationship and our dependence on nature. 
Source: Nature is speaking

The tragedy of the science commons

How to communicate climate change science

One of the major problems to curbing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, and thus to some extent globally, is the fact that a large fraction of the American public is skeptical about the proposition of human-induced climate change. According to a multiple-country study by Resources for the Future (RFF) released in 2010 only 40% of the American public think that environmental improvements should be a priority. This is in comparison to 77 % of the Chinese public and 62% of the Swedish public  (figure 1). Dan Kahan, a professor in law and psychology at Yale University, has studied this phenomenon which he calls the science communication problem, referring to “the failure of sound, widely disseminated science to settle public controversies over risks and other policy-relevant facts that admit of scientific investigation” (Kahan, 2012). This post will deal with the topic of understanding different cultural/group attitudes towards scientific information.

Figure 1. Source: Resources for the future
Ever since the 1970´s there have been many suggested reasons to why science has not been able to settle debates about e.g. climate change, gun control, and nuclear power in the U.S. and elsewhere. One common thesis is the so called "science denialism" which posits that we see disputes over risks because there is a significant portion of the population that doesn't accept the authority of science as a guide for policy-making. Suggested solutions related to that type of reasoning has thus been to promote more education and outreach. However,  Kahans research on this topic in the case of the U.S. shows that no cultural group favors policies that diverge from scientific consensus on climate change, for example. Rather, due to identity-protective cognition, groups are culturally polarized over what the scientific consensus is on those issues. 

A second common explanation is the "misinformation" thesis. Although there is plenty of misinformation on topics such as climate change Kahan argues that it may not be the case that misinformation is actually causing public controversy but rather that causation runs the other way. Meaning that people tend to find evidence supportive of erroneous but culturally supportive beliefs which in turn can set of a cascade of misinformers who benefit from this viewpoint being promoted e.g. coal industry. 

The third explanation comes from economics and is called "bounded rationality". To some people, controversy over climate change can be explained by deficits in the public's reasoning capacities. According to this view, ordinary members of the public know too little science and can't understand it anyway because they use faulty strategies for interpreting risk information. Although it's plausible Khan argues that even this explanation is wrong. He does so on the basis of evidence from his studies that higher levels of science literacy and quantitative reasoning ability did not lower the cultural polarization on climate change, but rather magnified it. This seems intuitively wrong to most people who would have guessed that with greater science literacy also comes increasing awareness of scientific truths. But Kahn explains this phenomena in terms of that people who are motivated to form perceptions that fit their cultural identities can be expected to use their greater knowledge to further facilitate erroneous beliefs about societal risks.

The fourth and last, less common but increasingly mentioned, explanation for why science has not been able to settle the public debate on climate change in the U.S. is termed "authoritarian personality". This explanation method posits that personality traits such as closed-mindedness on the one hand and conservative ideology on the other correlates, and that this would indicate differences in e.g. republicans and democrats positions on climate change. However, as Kahn shows in his cultural cognition studies, both republicans and democrats tested equally protective of their cultural beliefs whether they were wrong or not and open-mindedness did not matter as a factor. Moreover, the subjects most inclined to employ reflective reasoning were also the most prone to identity-protective cognition, agreeing with findings in disproving the third explanation mentioned above. This means that in the case of the U.S., at least, cultural cognition and group identity is a major problem to people trying to achieve a truthful and effective science communication. Different cultural and ideological values shape peoples risk perception on issues such as climate change as demonstrated in the figure below.
Source: adapted from Cultural Cognition 
The tragedy of the science commons
According to Kahn these results indicate that indentity-protective cognition is the problem to why science has not been able to settle certain debates such as climate change. It affects groups of all ideologies and interferes with the judgment of even the most scientifically literate and reflective citizens. The public space for debate can be defined as a common good. For this public space to benefit society at large, and not only certain cultural groups, standards has to be put into place to protect this common good. This would include not allowing pollution in form of erroneous but culturally protective beliefs to take over the space. Kahn thus suggests that there needs to be a separation between meanings and facts, allowing for a public space were discussions about policy-consequential facts can be fruitful. Leaving all that has to do with meanings outside of the science debate so to protect democratic societies from that which makes the science communication environment toxic. But to do this one also needs to understand how such meanings are formed, which today is still poorly understood.

References:
Carlsson et al. (2010). Paying for Mitigation: A Multiple Country Study

Kahan, D (2010). Fixing the Communications Failure. Nature 463, 296-297