Peak Resources: election

Showing posts with label election. Show all posts

Opinion poll for August 2018. Social Democrats (S), Left party (V), Green party (MP), Moderate party (M), Liberals (L), Centre party (C), Christian party (KD), Sweden democrats (SD), Feministic party (FI), Other (Ö). Source: val.digital

The five most important issues to voters in the 2018 election are: health care (44%), education (26%), immigration (25%), law and order (24%), and environment (23%) according to a poll in the newspaper Daily News (DN, 2018).

That environment/climate change is now one of the five top issues for voters this election is due to the extreme heat, droughts and massive wildfires this summer. The extreme weather this summer hit farmers really hard and exposed the governments lack of quick and effective response to natural catastophies. The heat dome over Scandinavia from May to June this summer has strong connections to climate change and a broken, stuck jet stream.

Such extreme weather (heatwaves, droughts, floods) is now part of the new norm. Something many people thought was years away or naively believed wouldnt happen here in the far north. It has shocked both scientists and ordinary people and made it an important issue for the election.

Some of the better proposals for green investments come from the Green party and the Centre party, tax-switching from labor to polluting/consumption and investing in public transportation. However, adaptation efforts are way behind in Sweden and no party has proposed any solutions for that. Its basically up to each municipality to implement solutions and enhance preparedness. As such, some regions may be better prepared to handle extreme weather than others.

As for how the election turns out we still have to wait and se until 9th of September. An educated guess is that the Sweden democrats will climb to become the second largest party instead of the Moderate party. Similar to what has happened in the rest of Europe, the once maginal extremist nationalistic party becomes popular due to increased dissatisfaction and lack of real change. This is very unfortunate in many ways. Not only because their policies are non-scientific and mostly rubbish but it will also hinder further investments into climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Despite this summers extreme weather bringing the issue of climate change and managing our resources better to the top of the election it may turn out that not much will change or even become worse with a new government where the Sweden democrats have more power.

Old boat in storm. Source: George Hodan, public domain pictures

Here we are, it’s 2016 and we see a rise in right wing demagogues across Europe and in the United States amidst a prolonged economic downturn. Somehow it feels eerily similar to the 1930s era of the Great Depression and trade wars leading up to World War II. In some respects we do see similar tendencies: excessive borrowing and speculation leading to bubbles and defaults, money printing and currency wars, mass unemployment and destruction of the middle class, a small ruling elite, and more aggressive nationalistic foreign policy. Perhaps it shouldn't be a surprise that human nature has not changed much over a mere 86 years.

There are, however, some crucial differences from the 1930s and now. In 1930 there were only 2 billion people on the planet, today the count is 7.5 billion. Back then there were still untapped resources, e.g. plenty of easily accessible fossil fuels to dig up and burn, functioning ecosystems and a relatively stable climate. Now, we have reached peak production and headed for decline in almost all natural resources while having to adapt to a changing climate and trying compensate for lost ecosystems. In other words, the situation right now is actually far worse than it was in the 1930s in terms of real world physical conditions.

These conditions are also the underlying factors to why the global economy is tanking. Reaching a peak in energy production implies hitting a wealth peak since there cannot be any real economic growth without increased energy consumption. Since 1973, when the United States went through local peak oil, and started importing large amounts of oil from the Middle East, the world has seen what happens when peak oil is passed. The average Americans living standard has been in decline ever since and multiple wars have been waged in the interest of securing oil from the Middle East.

I understand that people are fed up with the status quo, the existing power structures, and want change. But no politician can change the fact that resources are diminishing, at most he/she can perhaps do something about the management and distribution of remaining resources. This could be done peacefully but history tells us it will most likely end up in a grab for what’s left by any means necessary. Instead of solving the problems at home many nations will probably turn outwards and try to grab other people's resources while claiming to be under attack from these “others” in form of terrorism, immigration, religious conversion etc. Well, that’s if they can afford it.

Overall, I think that the deglobalisation trend that started in 2008 will only continue, with more protectionism, stricter border controls, capital controls and failing international cooperation. And when the next major financial crisis hits there will be very little trust left in the international monetary system. Then all hell could break lose. But who knows, we cannot predict the future based on the past.

Coastal permafrost collapsing. Source: USGS Alaska Science Center

I have been away from blogging for a while but decided to try and pick it back up today. So much has happened this spring that I haven't been able to write about so I decided to pick out some key trends/headlines that I found most important.

1 - Civil war in Turkey!? Turkey houses some 2.6 million Syrian refugees, out of the more than 4.7 million Syrians who have fled their country’s civil war. Turkey is also currently engaged in the conflict in Syria fighting (US supported) Syrian kurds more than ISIS due to fears of escalating internal conflict. But the Turkish strategy backfired as three suicide bombings in three cities killed 150 people and shocked the nation. Experts now fear that the Turk-Kurd conflict inside Turkey could turn into a full blown civil war if hostilities keep increasing. Erdogan is supposed to have asked Obama to halt support to the Syrian kurds YPG which has close historic ties with the Turkish kurds, PKK. However, that has not happened since the YPG is fighting ISIS, and so the confusing war in Syria continues while another one is brewing in Turkey.

2 - Extreme February Temperature Anomaly shows worrying signs of a potential non-linear response to continued global warming, but probably due to a strong El Niño. According to NASA scientists the average global temperature in February was about 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the previous record set in 1998 and 1.35 degrees above the 1951-80 average. The average global atmospheric CO2 level reached 402.59 ppm, according to NOAA. Vietnam, Zimbabwe and Fiji suffered major economic losses from February droughts and storms as reported by Wunderground.

3 - How the refugee crisis turned out to be a major preparedness crisis. A prime minister that was invisible when the crisis erupted. A director-general that played golf and ran marathons. Prognoses which were completely wrong, greatly underestimated the number of refugees. Total lack of coordination and pressing decisions that were put on hold. The Swedish government's handling of the refugee crisis has been a complete mess. Politicians kept denying the facts until there were no more beds, no more supplies and no willingness to comply. And so they had to change policy. On the 4th of January border patrol with ID-control between Denmark and Sweden was enforced, delaying all traffic with some 20-60 minutes every day. According to the Immigration Office some 81% of refugees lack any kind of identification papers when they arrive. It is still too early to tell the consequences of such major mismanagement of a country.

4 - The Panama Papers Scandal shows just how widespread and pervasive tax evasion and government corruption is at the moment, from prime ministers to global banks. The leaked 11.5 million files includes nearly 40 years of data (1977-2015) on offshore secrecy and and includes names of high-level politicians, such as the president of Argentina and Iceland's prime minister etc. I'm surprised there has not been a bigger outrage over this topic, but then again, maybe because it was somewhat expected in our grossly unequal society.

5 - Negative Interest Rates madness continues despite its ineffectiveness. The only thing that has changed here in Sweden in regards to this topic is that people are piling up ever more private debt, or going bankrupt, with a major increase among 18-25 year olds. The housing bubble is still going strong and our dear politicians are already backing on implementing harsher mortgage repayment requirements decided upon in 2015. Perhaps it's because they realize they might prick the bubble or the fact that so many now rely on an income generated by flipping property.

Brilliant economist Steve Keen writes in FORBES that Sweden rank as top 3 on highest risk for a debt crisis within the next one to three years. Looking at the graph below it becomes rather obvious that the current credit growth trend is unsustainable.

Source: Steve Keen, FORBES

6 - The Great Barrier Reef is currently undergoing the worst mass bleaching event on record, according to Australia's national coral bleaching taskforce. As a marine biodiversity hotspot this is a major threat to species conservation. Many corals will die, without them lots of species will lack a habitat and nursing ground for young ones. As such it's hard to ascertain the scale of devastation, even though the immediate effects already seem dire.

Source: Coral Reef Watch, NOAA

7 - Marine heat waves last longer and cover larger areas due to global warming (extra strong during El Niño years), devastating marine life. An example of such is "the Blob" that emerged off the Pacific Northwest in 2014. Sea life outside the US west coast has suffered greatly, with stranded sea lions, increase in whale deaths and entire beaches full of dead shrimp. Marine life has been hit hard by this double whammy.

8 - The American Election - it's just tragic. I'm so tired of reading about Trump I could puke. I can't imagine what would happen if Trump is elected and we have him and Putin trying to get along. Scary.

The Swedish Parliament in Stockholm. Photo credit: Christian Gidlöf (CC-BY-SA 3.0)

Swedish Politics

Since the parliamentary election, 14th of September this year, Swedish politics has been in constant turmoil. The prime minister declared re-elections only one month ago. A decision that has been widely critcized by both the left and the right. Today, six parties (S, Mp, M, Fp, C, Kd) held a press conference to present a deal struck over block party lines to negotiate on three main topics, namely pensions, energy, and swedish defence politics. Prime minister, Stefan Löfven, also said that there won't be a re-election in March 2015 due to this new deal which makes it possible for a minority coalition to rule in parliament.

What does this mean for Swedish politics?

It looks like Swedish politics have entered a new era of six party politics. This has come about since the xenophobic Sweden Democrats (Sd) became the third largest party in Swedish politics, which created three blocs instead of two, making it difficult to rule in a minority position. This new deal, that covers a period of 7 years, makes it possible for a minority coalition to rule in parliament and get their budget passed. It also makes it impossible to break out parts of a budget, like the left did during last election term when the Alliance ruled in parliament. For voters this means that it matters less which party you voted for, but rather for which bloc you voted for. This deal has excluded the left party (V) and the Sweden Democrats (Sd). It is difficult to know what Swedes think about all this, but it has become increasinly clear that political contempt has risen during this fall/winter. Sd has called for a declaration of no confidence of prime minister Stefan Löfven but for that to pass they would need a majority in parliament, which is unlikely now that this deal has been struck.

We are emotional apes

Emotions are produced and experienced in the brain's limbic system (middle). Emotional impulses travel from the limbic system to the frontal cortex (front) where rational, logical thinking can take place. Neuroscientist have found that its the emotional part of our brain that moves us into action. Understandably, since we have evolved to respond to immediate threats that requires a quick response or single action. However, this is a major hindrance when it comes to solving problems such as climate change, that are complex, "invisible" and happen over long timescales. Environmental scientist have tried for decades to engage people in the climate change problem, but much indicate that they have not been very successful. On the other hand, many people probably understand the central problem of pollution but in this case there is no silver bullet and we have to cooperate on a global scale. That makes us feel like we have no agency. So we need leadership and good examples.

This is not a Hollywood movie

In most action movies there is always someone who comes to the rescue. But in this case, it is not so. Poor leadership, too little civil society engagement, entrenched business interests and daily distractions keep us on the path of “business-as-usual”, despite our better judgement. We cannot wait any longer, we need to make our voices heard.

In Sweden, 3 out of 5 top worries among the public are related to environmental problems. Yet, last election no political party really talked about their vision of a more sustainable society or how to get there. We have to make some crucial decisions regarding: nuclear power, emergency response capacity, climate adaptation funding, transportation, flood protection, supply chain security and more. Planning for and adapting to changes takes time and replacing infrastructure or energy supply sources takes decades. If politicians are serious about reforming immigration policy they should focus on our climate dilemma, since if we fail to take action, there will be millions of climate refugees from poorer nations and perhaps even war and conflict. This fact is seldom talked about. We can only hope that the re-election engages people more than the last election, which was very dry and lacked clear topics.

UPDATE

It has now been decided, there will be a new election in March 2015. The prime minister has not resigned and the coalition will continue with their proposed budget but have separate campaigns running up to the next election. The question is however, even if there is a new election, will the outcome be much different?

Political Turmoil

Sweden's government crisis, since the Sweden Democrats (Sd) announced their decision to vote no to any budget that does not include some of their politics (i.e. reduction of immigration), will most likely result in new elections in the spring according to some experts. The current center-left coalition government (S, Mp, and V) will probably not get its budget to pass in parliament today. The impasse has taken sleepy politicians by surprise and is unique in Swedish politics as to what will happen next.

Ways forward?

One likely scenario is that the S, Mp, V budget fails and Stefan Löfven, who is currently prime minister, resigns. If he resigns then the speaker could ask him to try and form a new government without support of the Green Party (Mp). Its unclear if this will happen since the Social Democrats (S) does not seem to want to stand alone. But if it happens, the Greens could then perhaps start negotiating with the center-right opposition (M, Fp, C, Kd). Some may think that sounds weird but the Greens have historically been supporting a bit of both sides. Ideally, Löfven would like to forge deals with two of the smaller opposition parties, the Centre Party (C) and the Liberal Peoples Party (Fp), but they have rejected his advances so far. The current opposition are stong in their collaboration and have worked together for a long while. They probably want to continue to show themselves as unified. Former Prime Minister Ingvar Carlsson has said that Sweden looks ready for a move away from the two blocs that have dominated the political scene for the last ten years. He is probably correct in that assessment, but most parties have not realized it until now.

Sweden Democrats position

The Sd are now in a strong position to force the other parties to give heed to their ambitions. At the same time no other party wants anything to do with them. But since Sd became the third largest party in the election they can't be ignored. They have announced that they want to make noise and try to hinder any suggestion that does not include some of their politics. By voting no to any budget that does not include their ambitions both blocs are in a troublesome position. At the moment it does not look like any bloc has met with Sd to discuss a deal.

New Election

Since there is no clear majority for any budget it is possible that Sweden will have an extra election. Sd would probably do well but maybe the two biggest parties S and M could gain some extra support from voters who seek out tried and trusted havens of stability. Right now everyone is blaming everyone and thinking less about how to find a solution. The government could also send back its budget to the finance committee, effectively postponing a decison until after Christmas. But this won't change anything. The prime minister may have already resigned but won't do so consitutionally until December 29th when he can call for new elections. The new election could come about as early as the start of Feburary. It will probably cost tax payers SEK 450 million. The latest opinion survey on party sympathies from October-November this year (8978 respondents) is shown in the graph below. S, M and Mp got higher numbers while all other parties backed. But one should note that people tend to say they vote for Mp but their numbers are lower in elections. And the opposite is true for Sd, people don't say they vote for them but do in elections.

Source: SCB

The Swedish Election 14 September

This post will deal with the upcoming Swedish election. For those who are unaware there is an election in Sweden on Sunday. There are a few key things that make this election somewhat exciting and controversial:

1. the center left social democrats (S) and the green party (MP) may get more votes than the center right liberals (M), (C), (FP) which would mean a change in government and party coalitions.

2. the anti-immigration party (SD) is probably going to get around 10 % of votes from dissatisfied Swedes who seems to believe "everything was better in the good old days".

3. a small upcoming left party called feministic initiative (Fi) will maybe get into the government since many young city dwellers vote for them as a way to give voice to gender questions and gay rights.

Although Swedes seem to panic about political correctness these days, especially if you read the two largest daily newspapers, many Swedes actually vote "with their wallet" when it comes to down to it. Meaning that taxation and job creation issues are still the two main topics people care most deeply about. That is also why the center right has now been in power for 8 years because they promised to improve the Swedish economy and lower taxation. However, people now seem ready for some change. Most Swedes belong to a wealthy middle class which prioritize education and health care just as much as one percent more or less in taxes.

Source: DN

Internationally the Reinfeldt, Bildt and Borg (M) government has become known for mainly their economic policies and the fact that Sweden did not suffer as much as many other countries after the 2008 financial crisis. However, while (M) certainly increased the governments budget surplus during their time in government private indebtedness has soared, especially in relation to the housing market which is now severely overheated. So while ordinary people have gotten lower taxes and more shopping malls they also have larger private debts. Moreover the attempt to open up thousands of new private schools has led to a big difference in education levels noticed in international tests. So while the center right may have done a lot for businesses and government budget not everyone feel too happy about their school and health reforms. And in the case of environmental policies a recent report showed that the government had failed to meet 14 of 16 of the environmental goals they had set.

Its funny to read NY Times analysis of the upcoming election. It mostly focuses on the issue of the Swedish economy and business climate but also a bit on immigration. While the reporter isn't totally wrong i find it sad that the same argumentation goes on in every country where a right wing party claims that "businesses will flee do to increased taxation if the center left wins" which of course is totally relative and in the case of Sweden most large companies such as IKEA and HM already have shell companies located in international tax havens. Also why is no reporter questioning the assumed belief that politics should serve businesses in larger extent than the people? Large companies always complain about taxation no matter what but that does not mean that lower taxation is better for the people in terms of getting more jobs. Most large companies have totally mechanized most of the work being done in factories anyway. Also in Sweden most people work in the public sector and in small and medium companies (SMC). Moreover, one does not have to lower taxes to make it easier for SMC to hire people, one could instead make a tax shift from labor to for example heavy, extractive and polluting industries.

Voter sympathies from 1967 to 2014, parties (top) and coalitions (below). Source: SVD

Anyway, the election campaigns so far have been more confusing than reassuring to most Swedes and the national radio broadcasting network SR reported that as of today 1/3 of Swedes are still undecided. Neither prime minister candidates have much charisma and (M) and (S) are basically so alike that people cannot tell their policies apart any longer. The smaller parties evoke more excitement from the public but also gets scrutinized harder by the media since there are some nut jobs the parties tries to get rid of just before election day. Most of the frenzy is of course about the SD party members since some have shady backgrounds in xenophobic organizations. Due to recent wars and conflicts (e.g. Syria, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Afghanistan) Sweden is likely to accept an even larger number of immigrants in the future (Sweden has one of the highest immigration numbers in the whole EU) which the SD party uses to scare people to vote for them, promising "all problems will go away when immigration numbers go down". Which is of course nuts! But segregation is a real problem that neither party has handled very well so more and more voters seem to vote for SD out of general dissatisfaction. However, one should not be fooled just because the party has cleaned up their act somewhat, they are still against most sound democratic things such as immigration, gay rights and abortion rights.

Many commentators believe the red (S) and greens (MP) will win the majority, but much indicates it will be a close call. No party has addressed the very important question of what to do with our nuclear power plants, which are now old (40 years or so), should we replace them or turn to more solar, wind, water? Also no party has made any real suggestions how to lower unemployment, maybe they want to have some unemployment to keep inflation down. Moreover many parties seem to promise reforms which they are not sure how to fund, poor math skills is something politicians are well known for unfortunately. And finally, Swedish politicians may talk green but we are starting to fall behind, for example in protecting biodiversity and establishing nature reserves.

Swedish Election 2018

The Era of Deglobalisation and Distrust

8 key trends Spring 2016

No Swedish Re-election in March 2015

Swedish Politics

What does this mean for Swedish politics?

Emotion = Action