I must say that I'm amazed over the fact that the international monetary system is still intact. It's now eight years since the global financial crisis first broke out. Irresponsible lax monetary policy in the belief of a "perpetual money machine", i.e lowering interest rates and expanding monetary supply, has lead to several bubbles and bursts. A process that started in the 1980s when industrial economies stopped generating GDP growth from productivity increases. And eight years is about the interval between every bubble bursting since then. 2017 could be the year when people finally lose faith in the system.

Of course there's a much deeper story to all this. The massive debt explosion that started in the 1980s has to do with diminishing returns on resource extraction. As real GDP growth slowed down, and wages stagnated, the cost of basic goods and living increased. People and governments started taking on huge loans to cover their continued consumption. An act of postponing the harsh consequences of going broke into the future, on to the next generation, while enjoying the present. By now we all know that most nations, and its peoples, are basically bankrupt since global GDP growth has come to a standstill while debts, not even including liabilities, have increased and are now impossible to pay back.

Instead of dealing with the real underlying issue, most nations have decided to double down on a failing policy of ever lower interest rates that keeps inflating markets and creating massive bubbles in stocks, bonds and housing. Sweden is a prime example of a country that never deleveraged during the last crisis and thus runs a much higher risk of having to face a major financial crisis soon. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that with its negative interest rates and  massive housing bubble Swedes are living way beyond their means. A small 40 m2 flat in central Stockholm cost at least 2-3 million SEK which makes it the third most overvalued housing market in the world, after Vancouver and London.

  

Mainstream media is still mostly blind to all this, claiming rising prosperity and a bright future ahead. And the few people who do stick their neck out are ridiculed based on silly arguments like "if it's a bubble why hasn't it popped yet?" as if that proves anything but faulty linear thinking of complex systems. It takes time for instabilities to build up. At a certain point, incremental change is suddenly replaced by abrupt change that can collapse the entire system. This is well-known within systems theory. To bad most economist never even study this and thus understands nothing about how the financial system or economy actually works as a whole.

Who knows how long this pretend and extend game can go on for, but one thing is certain, people are starting to lose faith in the system. We see that clearly in the political arena and spread of alternative media. We also see it in the rise of ever more elaborate conspiracy theories. The status quo is breaking down.

Unfortunately there are plenty of madmen and privileged people who are ready to use the resulting polarisation and confusion for their own benefit. The "let's blame immigrants" card is already in full swing. Cutting funding for climate change research is another type of witch hunt that's not happening only in the US, for example, the Sweden Democrats want to do something similar here claiming the meteorological authority's scenarios, which are based on IPCC's research,  are too alarmist. For us who study the topic of climate change this statement is laughable as it's more like the other way around, most projections underestimate the risks. Also, the increasing flow of refugees are partly a consequence of depleting resources and climate change. Perhaps politicians fear a loss of voters if the public understood that fact properly.

Anyway, 2017 looks to me as a year of high risk of political turmoil, social unrest, and financial calamity. Drawing most attention away from the underlying issues: resource depletion, biodiversity loss, climate change and overpopulation.

New research from the McGill University, published in Nature Communications, maps the distribution of our planet's lakes. It clearly shows how the last ice age shaped and formed many of the 1.4 million lakes, larger than 10 hectares, that contain 15% of all the lake water in the world. Dark blue color indicates density of lakes, and as the map shows the highest density can be found in the northern hemisphere, in regions previously covered in large ice sheets. The rest of the worlds lake water, 85%, can be found in the 10 largest lakes. About half of the lakes are freshwater and the other half are salt lakes.

Global distribution of water volume stored in lakes and reservoirs with a surface area of at least 10 ha. Source: Messager et al. (2016)

According to historian and author William Blum, since the end of World War II, the United States has:
- Attempted to overthrow more than 50 foreign governments

When it rains, it pours and when it snows, it snows a lot. On average unusually warm weather is interrupted by sudden cold spells, taking people by surprise. Both Stockholm and Göteborg have had major traffic problems with so much snow falling in such a short time period. City regions struggle to keep subways, trains and highways up and running while smaller municipalities seem to be doing fine. 

Then again, people who live out in the countryside are better prepared to deal with such events because they are used to having to manage by themselves. Better planning, checking forecasts, not rushing, having more supplies at home and friendly neighbours who will help in a pinch are some of the characteristics that come to mind. I have had a farmer help pull my car from a snowdrift with his tractor.  

On the 30th of November, the sun set at 11:38 in the most northern part, Treriksröset, of Sweden. The next time the sun will go above the horizon is on the 11th of January 2017. Days will become shorter in the entire country until the winter solstice, on 21st of December, and then it turns around. Luckily we have some snow now where I live, which makes the place brighter. 

While the cold has hit Scandinavia, parts of northern Europe, and Russia the Arctic region is suffering from very warm temperature, up to +20 C, anomalies. 

The loss of Arctic sea ice is of major concern. The rapid decline in extent and volume has occurred much faster than most climate models have projected. There are several factors that impacts sea ice, not only wind, air and ocean temperature, but also cloudiness and ice thickness. Sea ice loss is showing signs of a downwards spiral that most likely cannot be stopped. Adding extra heating to the Arctic region, the globe as a whole, and changing wind (jet stream) patterns.